FIM Capital’s investment director Russell Collister tells the remarkable story of bond investors guaranteed to lose money.
The respected German household goods company Henkel recently raised half a billion Euros on the bond market.
In most circumstances, this would have been an unremarkable, even routine, transaction.
What caught the eye was the fact that the bonds carried a negative redemption yield. In other words, investors were guaranteed to lose money between the date of issue and the date of redemption, two years down the line.
Remarkably, not only was this bond issue apparently oversubscribed (there were more buyers than available stock), the short-list of successful (?) applicants reads like a European Who’s Who of institutional investors.
It is unlikely that these bonds will ever find their way into private client portfolios.
Without exception, investment managers are tasked to increase the value of portfolios, either through capital appreciation, income generation, or both, whilst simultaneously controlling the level of risk.
Ensuring the polar opposite is unlikely to result in a long and distinguished career in managing other people’s money.
And yet, in the bizarre world of finance, buying such a loss-making investment is clearly considered by some to be the right thing to do.
The German logic is that the yield, whilst bad, is less bad than holding cash, which is very bad indeed. Abandon all hope, ye who enter here, as Jean-Claude Juncker might have written, had Dante not got there 700 years earlier.
The question for new Henkel bondholders is: why didn’t you buy the equity? Shares in Henkel are yielding 1.2 per cent. This is a great company now awash with cash (thanks to the bond issue), so the dividend is unlikely to be cut any time soon; indeed, it will most likely rise over time, especially if inflation, which is creeping higher in the US, reaches Europe.
There are, of course, any number of reasons why institutions can’t do the logical thing and buy Henkel shares instead of the bonds.
Fund managers are strictly bound by asset allocation models, often set by pension trustees.
These models will include bonds, and lots of them. Given the turmoil which would occur in bond markets should interest rates rise unexpectedly, buying short-dated paper like the Henkel issue could be the least worst option, even if capital losses are guaranteed.
The obvious remedy would be to change the mandate. However, for many life and pension companies, bonds form a cornerstone of their regulatory capital and are formally ranked as lower risk investments than equities.
In essence, the regulator is encouraging companies to lock in poorer returns to mitigate risk.
We think that this is a big mistake at this stage of the cycle, no matter how well intentioned.
You probably (hopefully) don’t hold the new Henkel bonds.
However, your pension fund might. Annuity rates, or the level at which life companies distribute income to pensioners are at historic lows, in part because bond yields are also low.
Annuities have long been a gamble on life expectancy and the odds are stacked against the annuity holder.
With the average UK life expectancy now at 82 years, current annuity rates for a 65 year old guarantee a capital loss to the investor after the 17 years it takes to reach that point.
Live another five years and you break even. This is Henkel bond territory.
The previous Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, recognised this problem and changed the rules to allow retirees far more flexibility in how to deal with their pensions than ever before.
He also improved independent savings accounts or ISAs (which we can now offer to Pound a Day Portfolio investors) all of which were intended to encourage saving for the longer term in a tax-efficient package.
Breaking through the glass ceiling of the often ridiculously complex pension industry can be hard to do.
A modern pension, however, should be flexible, tax-efficient and cost-effective. It should also be transparent and easy to understand.
Your pension should be all of these things.
If it is not, you may wish to speak to your pension adviser and then to us, to ensure that you are holding Henkel’s shares, or their equivalent and, for pity’s sake, not those bonds.
FIM Capital Limited is licensed by the Financial Services Authority of the Isle of Man and Regulated and Authorised by the UK Financial Conduct Authority.