Island-based investor Jim Mellon says people can expect to be working until they are 80.
The successful businessman and entrepreneur reckons we should be rethinking our life plans.
Mr Mellon refers to a new book called The 100 Years Life by Lynda Grafton and Andrew Ward, about to come out.
It explains how people will have to plan to work till 80 at least; that children born today will live to at least 105 - ‘which exceeds the then optimistic forecast made in Fast Forward’ - the book Mr Mellon wrote predicting the future.
Mr Mellon says the old structure of education, career and retirement faces changes, according to the new book The 100 Years Life.
He says: ‘This tallies with my own views that people will have to have multi-faceted careers, that education will never end, and that we will always have to stay one step ahead of the robots to ensure that we continue to have productive employment.
‘It’s interesting that the word “robot” comes from the Czech for untermensch, a pejorative description of a less valuable stratum of society. (Of course, if we are not careful, that untermensch category is less likely to apply to the robots, but to the people whose jobs are replaced by them.)’
Writing for the latest Master Investor magazine Mr Mellon points out that at the recent Islexpo conference in the island he was making the point that the best thing that the island can do is to promote continuous education, and to change its social contract to avoid having the population retire at 65 –and thereby end up with unsustainable pension liabilities.
He added: ‘What we do want to be is adaptable, curious and useful. And the way to do that is to read a lot, learn a lot and to be prepared to do a volte face over whatever fixed views we had before. The old notion that doctors, lawyers, accountants and civil servants have jobs for life will soon be upended.
‘No-one will be indispensable in the rising tide of automaton. But of course, in a world where production will be increasingly situated near the point of its consumption, and where all repetitive tasks – and, ultimately, more complex tasks – will be performed by machines, there will be plenty of losers.
‘This won’t be made any easier by the Bernie Sanders types who advocate crippling levels of minimum wages – as I said at Master Investor 2016, if machines could speak, they would love the idea of that. Minimum wages mean work minimisation. Machines don’t talk back, don’t need health care, and don’t get sick. They do work all the time and their costs are coming down’.
Mr Mellon, 59, is reported by the Sunday Times Rich List to be worth £850 million, and has been described as Britain’s answer to Warren Buffett.
The director of the Burnbrae Group adds that the path of uninterrupted progress has hit a bit of a roadblock.
He asks: ‘Have you noticed how your PC doesn’t seem to need replacing – because the newer alternatives are more or less the same? That’s because the Dennard Scaling (a fancy term for Moore’s Law) has reached its limits. It isn’t worth the money and power to try to improve semiconductor performance. So we need a new form of computing, and I am getting very excited about Quantum Computing. It’s a little way off, but boy, it’s going to be big. The trick is that once QC can get to about 30 so-called Qubits (don’t ask), they will move to a level of power and speed that will revolutionise computation. In areas such as aircraft design, drug discovery, and stock trading everything will change.’
Mr Mellon warns that those who can’t see the future ‘will become the unfortunates relying on state subvention for a basic existence. This is why I am convinced that ultimately there will have to be a universal wage, which allows those who have been left behind by the tidal wave of innovation to enjoy a lifestyle substantially of leisure.’
In the article’s summary he calls on people to ‘rethink your life plan. Expect to live a much longer life than the biblically prescribed one of three score and ten; don’t expect to stop working till you are 80 (if you are lucky enough to have a job and to be qualified for the new world order); and keep learning. In fact, I believe that education, in manifest forms, will be a key and growing industry’.