The Isle of Man’s population could be falling.
That’s the conclusion reached after statistical analysis of school numbers.
The former co-ordinator for 11-19 education in the island, Paul Craine, has been crunching the numbers.
He sawys there is evidence suggesting more families are leaving the island than arriving.
Mr Craine has used information supplied by the Department of Education and Children (DEC) to show how individual year groups across the island’s schools have changed in size between September 2015 and September 2016, which is an indicator of the balance between families arriving and families leaving.
He said that figures released to Isle of Man Newspapers earlier this month about the island’s school numbers did not match up with the Council of Ministers’ second quarterly report, which provided evidence of an end to population decline.
The CoMin report, based on the number of people registered with doctors, showed that the island’s population had increased by 70 people in the period from June 2015 to June 2016.
Figures released to Isle of Man Newspapers by education chiefs revealed that pupil numbers in primary schools had increased by eight to 6,390 but pupil numbers in secondary schools had fallen from 5,315 to 5,246.
Mr Craine, a former assistant head teacher who stood unsuccessfully for Middle in last month’s House of Keys general election, has penned the Isle of Man Population Atlas.
He notes that as reception pupils moved to year one (aged five to six) there was a increase of four. In the group of pupils moving from year one to year two, there was a drop of eight pupils.
The biggest drops in pupil numbers are from year six (aged 10 to 11) to year seven (aged 11 to 12) where there is a loss of 28 pupils and from year 10 to year 11 where there is a loss of 15 pupils.
‘It is clear from the graph that the balance of movement, although not large, is outward. Over the last school year more families left the Isle of Man than arrived,’ Mr Craine said.
‘Taking all year groups from the reception year of 2015 becoming year one in 2016 through to year 10 becoming the new year 11, the balance showed a net loss of 64 pupils. This amounts to 0.65 per cent of the total number across these 11 year groups.’
He said the largest fall of 28 pupils could be as a result of some pupils leaving the government education system at age 11 to attend a public school on or off-island, however this might be offset by pupils who had been home educated up to the age of 11 being enrolled in secondary school.
‘It’s possible that the population has grown but not in young families.
‘At the moment it’s probably fair to say that some of the support given to families in the UK is of a higher level than we have got for families in the Isle of Man and I’m sure that has a big impact.
‘It’s not just about a job for people, it’s about a range of things.’
Factors he noted were the cost of pre-school care and university fees and accommodation costs while students are studying.
In addition, Mr Craine said it was important to note this was a ‘marked contrast’ to the period between 2001 and 2011.
‘As the zero to four-year-olds of 2001 became the 10- to 14-year-olds of 2011, they increased by an average of over 13 pupils per year group, per year throughout this 10-year period – a very clear indicator of strong population growth.’
‘This reduction of 64 pupils across the school year groups between September 2015 and September 2016 suggests that there is continued population decline, at least in certain age groups.
‘This does not appear to be consistent with the second quarterly economic report to the Council of Ministers, based on the number of people registered with doctors, which estimated that the population had increased by 72 over the period from June 2015 to June 2016.
Mr Craine, who lives in Glen Vine, believes more than one method needs to be used in order to gain a greater and well-rounded picture of the population change in the island.
‘The value of using more than one indicator for estimating population change is apparent.
‘I think what is needed is clarity about what the island’s population policy is. We need clarity on what we’re trying to achieve with population growth and how many people we want here.
‘When we’re clear of what we’re trying to do and decide that we want to encourage families here then we do have to look at what we need to do and what we need to change in order to make the Isle of Man attractive.’
If there has been a fall in the population, that would mean a drop in the tax take for the government, which would hit services such as education, health and infrastructure.
It could also hit the housing market, meaning prices would fall and make it easier to get on the property ladder. But it might also lead to negative equity for those who’ve already bought.
A drop in population might also be one cause of the fall in unemployment, which last month stood at 1.3 per cent of the ‘working population’.
A census was held in the island in May.
When those results are published the island should have definitive proof of any shifts in population.